It is a mark of how much the Government is struggling that even when it scores a clear win, the voters do not care, and the news quickly vanishes from the front pages. The recent signing of a major free trade deal with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), comprising Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE is a classic example.

The agreement, four years in the making and the first of its kind signed between the GCC and a G7 country, would be the feather in the cap of any successful British Government. Worth around £3.7 billion (0.1%) in annual GDP gains to the UK economy, the deal is predicted to raise total UK wages by £1.9 billion and generate £15.5 billion in additional trade each year over the long term.

Notwithstanding the current Iran War, the Gulf is expected to remain one of the fastest-growing regions in the world over the next decade, reaping the benefits of a relatively young population and increasingly open, pro-business economies. The payoff for the UK by tapping into such a growth market could be considerable in the years ahead.

But behind the headline figures for the agreement are the missed opportunities for boosted growth and investment that Britain could have got out of this deal if the UK economy were more competitive and dynamic. The Gulf has vast reserves of surplus capital available for investment in the UK, but Labour has done its best to deter as much of it as possible. Keeping corporation tax at 25% and jacking up employer NICs have been accompanied by rising employment costs through an increasingly unaffordable minimum wage and onerous labour market regulations via Angela Rayner’s Employment Rights Act. Add to this the uncertainty around wealth and capital gains taxation, and the Government has created the sense that Britain is a hostile environment for business and mobile global capital.

You saw the same dynamic with the UK-US Tech Prosperity Deal, signed in September 2025 during President Trump’s visit to Britain. The technology and investment partnership aimed to make the UK a hub for advanced technologies by getting large US tech firms like Microsoft and Google to commit to investing in UK AI infrastructure, including data centres, cloud capacity and supercomputers. Bringing in an estimated £31 billion for the UK economy, the agreement was ostensibly another clear success for Labour. But numerous tech investors and commentators pointed out that the constant bottlenecks in our Byzantine planning system, grid connection delays, the Digital Services Tax targeting US tech firms and our high energy costs — amongst the highest in the developed world — were all pushing potential investors away. We left billions on the table in the deal in deterred investment, with the UK being the beneficiary of only a fraction of the annual planned AI infrastructure spending by US hyperscalers and AI firms — investment which is set to reach nearly £600 billion globally by the end of this year.

Ultimately, trade and investment agreements are only as impactful as the UK economy will allow. They can be a major catalyst for growth by opening the doors to new opportunities and removing the barriers to free-flowing commerce, but they cannot overcome the inertia of dreadful economic policy. This is a major reason why Starmer’s trade deals have had such muted impact on Britain’s growth figures.

With the effects of every new trade deal being dampened by the dead hand of the Government’s economic mismanagement, it then becomes vital to sign as many agreements as possible to move the needle on growth.

Yet, under Starmer, new agreements have unfortunately been few and far between, and just two could be regarded as significant: last year’s free trade agreement with India, which removed tariffs on around 90% of UK exports to the country, and this year’s GCC deal.

The other deals have been relatively ineffectual. The UK-US Economic Prosperity Deal (EPD) signed in May 2025 was limited to targeted tariff relief and market access. This is a long way from the comprehensive free trade agreement that would sweep away tariffs and see full regulatory recognition that many Brexiteers had been hoping for.

The UK-South Korea agreement signed in late 2025, too, was essentially an upgraded free trade deal that replaced and modernised the one signed by the EU in 2021 when the UK was still a member. It is a good deal, but not transformational, with modest gains of an extra £400 million for the UK economy and many barriers to trade in services, vital to the UK, left in place.

Likewise, Starmer’s so-called ‘UK-EU reset agreement’ in May 2025 was incremental, technocratic and relatively modest, securing only minor concessions considering the enormous political bandwidth it occupied. This took the focus away from driving through ongoing negotiations with Switzerland and Turkey and reviving stalled talks with Canada, Mexico and Israel, with the opportunity cost of the delay in forgone trade and investment running into the billions.

Although the Government has had some successes with trade and investment on the international stage, unfortunately for Starmer, the Government’s domestic economic failures and its lack of ambition on free trade have killed any prospect of the voters feeling the benefits in time to save his beleaguered premiership.

The original photo is by No 10, taken in Riyadh. Keir Starmer bids farewell there to the Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman at the Saudi Royal Court.