I think the Tories will win the next general election. I know that is a bold prediction, but I think it is grounded in some interesting trends.

At the moment, Reform are still a few points ahead of the Tories in the polls and, if there was an election today, would almost certainly win the largest share of seats. But for the reasons I go through below, I think it is still very much game on for the Tories.

The UK political scene right now is incredibly volatile. Whilst Reform and the Greens have the momentum now, that does not guarantee success by the general election in 2029. The clearest example of this is how Reform went from polling at around 7% to over 30% in just a year. Labour has experienced the same volatility in the opposite direction, from a huge majority in 2024 to, according to some MRP polls, fewer than 70 seats now.

Even in recent months we have seen a slight dip in Reform’s momentum. It is also possible the Greens are peaking too soon. That dip in momentum, combined with a shift in voter mindset, makes me think that, despite what current MRP polls suggest, we will not end up with a Reform government. This comes down to four factors: voter mindset, Reform’s credibility, tactical voting, and an economic doom loop.

First, voter mindset. The approach of the electorate in the July 2024 election was very much about punishing those who failed them. That explains why the Tories were wiped out. It also explains why, despite not offering a fully coherent plan for government, Labour still won a huge majority. I suspect that mindset will continue into the local elections on May 7th. I expect both Reform and the Greens to do very well. However, I think it is becoming increasingly clear that the Tories, contrary to what many in Reform predict, will not disappear after those elections.

By 2029, I think that mindset will fade. People will be thinking more seriously about who they actually trust to run the economy, the NHS, education and the rest of government. The mood of anger and protest may shift into a more practical question of how to get out of the current mess. Farage is unmatched when it comes to reading the national mood — which is why he does so well in emotionally charged events — but when voters start weighing up detailed plans, they may lean towards experience over insurgency.

Following the local elections in May, Reform will be properly tested. In the 2025 local elections Reform did extremely well, but with that came scrutiny and the realities of decision-making. The Reform-run Kent council has already been under significant pressure. In May, they may well do well again, but governance brings a different level of scrutiny. It stops being about speeches and channelling anger and becomes about actually balancing budgets and delivering services. Once that starts to bite, it is very possible their popularity takes a hit.

Nigel Farage has taken Reform from under 10% in the polls to as high as 35%. He is an exceptional political communicator and very in tune with public mood. However, his ceiling is low. The Tories have a broader potential coalition. While Farage is popular with his base, he is also highly polarising and many voters might vote Tory but would not vote for a Farage-led Reform. Indeed, Kemi Badenoch is now more popular than Farage. Some Liberal Democrat and Labour voters in the blue wall may now hold their noses and vote Conservative if it means blocking Reform.

Reform are primarily the immigration party, yet do not yet have the same credibility on other issues like the economy. By 2029, immigration will still matter, but if Labour continues to push higher taxes, rising welfare costs, a sluggish economy and the brain drain, then the economy will likely return as the main issue.

The Conservatives are still the most trusted party on the economy. Historically, they are the party brought in to manage economic crises, whether that is Thatcher in the 1980s or Cameron in 2010. Voters tend to see them as the party that steps in when the country needs harsh medicine.

That does not mean everyone will automatically return to them, but positioning on economic policy is clear. Reform have instead shifted around on issues like benefit caps and nationalisation, trying to balance a more socialist-leaning red wall with more conservative southern voters. The Tories do not face quite the same internal contradiction. They can make a clearer argument that tough decisions are needed to break out of the current economic doom loop.

I am not saying the Tories will definitely win the next election, but with the right decisions and clear communication around fiscal discipline and growth they could absolutely turn the polls on their head and win against the odds.

Reform may well thrash the Tories in May, but the process of governing and gaining trust is only just beginning. Indeed, while Reform is still heavily shaped by the Johnson-era Conservative eco-system, the current Conservative shadow cabinet is more clearly a reset, with a newer leadership trying to set out a coherent direction.

2029 is still a long way off, and there is everything to play for.

Original photo of sad Nigel by Derek Bennett.